According to a new report from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the European Association of People Management (EAPM), only 15% of European companies plan their workforce more than three years in advance, suggesting that many companies may soon face key shortages in skills as the 'double whammy' of falling birth rates and rising numbers of baby boomers entering retirement shrinks the size of the workforce.

The report also found that 47% of European companies do not plan their work force requirements more than a year in advance. Companies that have been forced to cut costs and reduce headcount during the recession may struggle to find the people they need when growth eventually returns. Companies, therefore, need to consider the long-term impact of their actions, even – or especially – in times of crisis, the report says.

Entitled Creating People Advantage: How to Tackle the Major HR Challenges During the Crisis and Beyond, the report analyses the results of what the authors describe as the most comprehensive HR survey ever conducted in Europe.

The survey asked executives to rate the future importance of 21 HR topics. Despite the crisis, managing talent remained the most urgent future topic in 2009, as it was in 2007, when the previous survey was conducted. "This topic is vital for companies today and in the future, and they know it. Other topics, such as managing work-life balance and managing corporate social responsibility, are viewed as luxuries these days," explains Rudolf Thurner, president of the EAPM.

"In ten years, the scarcest resource for a company will be people," says Rainer Strack, a co-author of the report and senior partner in BCG's Düsseldorf office. "Companies should understand how their workforce will develop, which job categories drive the business, and how demand will evolve. With the uncertainty prevailing today, the HR department should analyse different scenarios to figure out whether and how to find, hire, retrain, outsource, or lay off employees."

Stephanie Bird, board member of EAPM and director of HR capability at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), says, "These findings support our recent research into talent, which found employers recognised the need to retain top performers, and also to plan for the skills and talents they need – now and in the future. We know many organisations are weathering the storm by placing greater emphasis on selecting and developing high-performing individuals, based on clear and robust criteria. 

"Unfortunately, our research also shows this is not yet being felt by employees themselves. For employer strategies to attract, retain and develop the people they need for the future to be truly effective, they need to be communicated in a way that generates enthusiasm and motivation."

The report contains more than 20 case studies and best-practice examples of companies that are looking beyond the crisis to achieve long-term success.

For further details of the report, visit www.bcg.com or www.eapm.org