How AI, migration and entrepreneurship will lead to continued growth in the US economy

The United States is the world’s largest economy, significantly bigger than China and six times larger than the third and fourth largest economies, Germany and India. So the health and growth of the US is vitally important for the economic fortunes of the rest of the world, especially because of its global trade links. In a recent speech to the New York Council of Relocation Professionals (NYCORP), Dr Paul Sheard, Australian American economist, policy commentator and Wall Street Journal bestselling author of The Power of Money, gave his update on the health of the US economy and his vision of the future.

Credit:Max Zolotukhin

Marianne Curphey

9 March 2026

In his address, Some Surprising Facts About the US Economy, Dr Sheard brought unmatched global experience, having served as Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers during the financial crisis, as Vice Chairman and Global Chief Economist at S&P Global, senior academic and policy leader at Harvard Kennedy School, Nomura, and the Australian National University, advisor to the Japanese government and contributor to global economic councils, including the World Economic Forum.Introduced by Brenda Levis, President of NYCORP and Founder and President of NYC Navigator and New England Navigator, Dr Sheard spoke about the impact of AI, migration and entrepreneurship on the US economy and shared his insights into how global economics functions. Dr Sheard, author of Wall Street Journal bestseller The Power of Money: How Governments and Banks Create Money and Help Us All Prosper, began by recalling how Brenda had helped him and his wife navigate their move to New York twenty years ago, and how the move had been so successful that he was still living there now.

Why does the US economy matter to the rest of the world?

The US economy, with a $31 trillion GDP (gross domestic product), is the largest and most innovative economy in the world, growing at around two per cent annually. While there has been criticism of the income and wealth inequality in the US, Dr Sheard attributed the growing disparity to entrepreneurial wealth creation, with figures like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos exemplifying the trend. He highlighted the misconceptions about government debt, emphasising that it functions as a form of money and purchasing power rather than a debt in the traditional sense, and explained the Federal Reserve's role in maintaining economic stability through interest rates and controlling inflation.He emphasised the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence to prevent inflation and maintain monetary policy.“The job of the Fed is to keep the economy on an even keel. It's the most important central bank in the world,” he said. “The Fed is part of the government, but it's set up in such a way that it puts shackles on the politicians, on the government, on the Congress, which prevents the government and the Congress from spending too much money.”

What effect will AI have on the jobs market?

Much has been written about AI's impact on jobs, particularly affecting white-collar roles, but it also drives innovation and efficiency. Rather than wiping out jobs, it will reshape the work that we do.“It will give people in those jobs a different set of tools with which to be productive,” Dr Sheard explained. He referenced how history suggests a familiar pattern where technology changes certain jobs while creating entirely new ones. For professionals across industries from finance to relocation services, the rise of AI presents both opportunity and challenge, but the human touch remains vitally important.“Whoever thought there would be dog psychologists and social media influencers?” he said. He explained that while legendary economist John Maynard Keynes once predicted that technological progress would eventually reduce the workweek to 15 hours and we would all have far more leisure time, his predictions did not quite pan out. While prosperity did arrive, we still do not live in a leisured society, thanks to human nature and our ambition and drive meaning that we always want something more.

How does US policy on migration affect economic growth?

Migration and citizenship are controversial topics in the US right now, with President Trump’s policy, particularly in Minneapolis, attracting criticism. Without directly referencing this, Dr Sheard addressed concerns about future US population demographics and the role of immigration.He also pointed out the resilience of the US economy to short-term political decisions, explaining how it is driven by powerful sectors like Silicon Valley and Wall Street, and the amazing infrastructure of US cities.“What our grandchildren will inherit is actually an incredible stock of capital and physical assets, like Brooklyn Bridge, and all of the infrastructure and also all the scientific knowledge, the technological knowledge, and all the institutions that former generations have created,” he said.Despite frequent pessimism in the news around some aspects of US policy, Dr Sheard was upbeat about the broader economy in the long term. GDP sits around $31 trillion, making it the largest and most productive economy in the world. Growth itself comes from three essential ingredients: labour, capital, and productivity, and immigration plays an especially important role in that equation.“Economists like migration. Migration has driven the Australian economy and the US economy,” he said, calling for a review of the immigration system which was currently something of a mess. “The US would definitely benefit from having a more streamlined immigration system that worked and had fewer piles of paper.”A steady inflow of talent, ambition, and entrepreneurial energy will continue to fuel expansion, he said. Many of the world’s richest individuals accumulated their fortunes by building transformative companies and providing platforms used daily by millions of people.Yet for entrepreneurs such as Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jeff Bezos, their wealth is essentially just stock market capitalisation, he explained, because that wealth reflects investor expectations about the future profitability of those companies. Those profits ultimately depend on future customers, many of whom have not even been born yet.“Part of the wealth of the uber rich actually accruing it from the expectation that people who have not yet been born will buy their products,” he explained.

Tariffs, trade, and the limits of political power

Trade policy has returned to the political spotlight in recent years, particularly through tariffs designed to reshape global supply chains, but Dr Sheard explained that economists remain sceptical.“Economists don't like tariffs because, tariffs are a tax on imports, and ultimately, the cost will fall on final consumers,” he said. The idea that trade deficits represent economic weakness is also a misunderstanding, he said. “Imports are exports. It just depends on which chair you're sitting in.”While governments can influence the economy, they do not have full control over it.“This is not a command and control economy,” Dr Sheard explained. “This is the most capitalist market orientated economy of the globe.”

What are the risks of political decisions negatively affecting migration and trade?

Asked by Relocate Global whether political decisions taken now or in the future could affect the long term growth of the US economy, Dr Sheard explained that he was sceptical that such decisions would have a negative effect in the long term. Addressing some of the concerns around recent policy decisions he explained:

Investment in public services: Reducing investment can slow capital accumulation and productivity growth. Economists consider capital accumulation one of the three pillars of long-term economic growth (the others being workforce growth and productivity).
Migration and talent flows: Immigration is critical for workforce growth, innovation, and entrepreneurial activity. Policies that restrict talent inflow could reduce efficiency, slow technological progress, and weaken the innovation ecosystem (eg Silicon Valley relies heavily on global talent).
Economic resilience: The US economy has been stress-tested through events like the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19, showing strong fundamentals such as rule of law, strong capital markets, and innovation. However, long-term mismanagement of policy could undermine this resilience.

How can the US ensure long term health and economic growth?

Dr Sheard explained that short-term shocks, such as geopolitical events, especially disruptions in oil and gas supply, can create inflation. For example, oil price spikes directly affect energy costs and indirectly raise broader consumer prices.However, the Federal Reserve plays a key role here by mitigating these shocks and adjusting monetary policy. In the short term, shocks cannot be fully offset, but he explained that the role of the Federal Reserve is to prevent inflation from becoming embedded over the medium-to-long term.In his optimistic assessment of the US potential for future growth, Dr Sheard highlighted a number of unique elements in the economy which are strongly tipped towards success:

Innovation and tech ecosystem: Silicon Valley is a globally unique resource that attracts talent and innovation and drives growth
Financial markets: Large and sophisticated capital markets (Wall Street, hedge funds, private equity) underlie the dollar’s global reserve currency status and continue to play a central role in global economic success
Rule of law and institutional stability: Despite what politicians may wish to do or say, the separation of powers within government, and built in checks-and-balances in the US political and legal systems provide long-term economic predictability and economic security
Labour flexibility and migration: The US benefits from inflows of highly skilled talent globally, which supports productivity and entrepreneurship. Although short-term restrictions may make talent movement more difficult, over the long term Dr Sheard believes that the US will still continue to attract people coming to work there and experience the American Dream and the opportunities that it presents.

In summary, he argued that the US economy continues to have strong structural advantages, including talent, capital, and innovation. While political decisions on immigration, public services, or fiscal management could slow growth or reduce efficiency, the US economic system will remain robust. Dr Sheard explained that while short-term shocks like the strikes on Iran may cause temporary inflation, Federal Reserve policy and structural factors will limit any long-term impact on the US economy. Over the long term it will continue to grow strongly and remain one of the most important economies on a global scale.

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